A developing weather system in the central Pacific Ocean continues to organize as it tracks toward the Hawaiian Islands. The National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C, currently located near 14.8 degrees north and 143.5 degrees west. As of early Thursday morning Coordinated Universal Time, the system sits roughly 900 miles east-southeast of the Big Island.
Maximum sustained winds stand near 35 knots, or about 40 miles per hour, with higher gusts. The system is moving westward at approximately 8 knots. Forecasters expect it to become a tropical storm later Thursday and then continue strengthening while shifting west-northwest. The forecast track brings the system near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and through the weekend.
Heavy rainfall is projected to begin affecting the Big Island on Friday. Rain is then expected to spread westward into Maui on Saturday and reach Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai on Sunday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible across much of the island chain, with some locations seeing amounts approaching 20 inches. This moisture carries the risk of flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
An increasing chance of wind and wave impacts exists across the islands regardless of the precise path. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for portions of the state as early as Thursday. Marine conditions are also expected to deteriorate, with building seas and higher surf along east-facing shores beginning Friday.
Before the system arrives, moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through Friday, accompanied by mostly dry conditions and elevated wildfire risk due to lower humidity. Occasional showers remain limited mainly to windward and mauka areas in the near term.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Weather Service Honolulu continue to issue regular updates. Residents and visitors are advised to review preparedness plans and stay informed of the latest forecast positions and intensity guidance as the system evolves.
